This Perspective argues that ergodicity — a foundational concept in equilibrium statistical physics — is wrongly assumed in much of the quantitative economics literature. By evaluating the extent to which dynamical problems can be replaced by probabilistic ones, many economics puzzles become resolvable in a natural and empirically testable fashion.

This course describes Bayesian statistics in which one s inferences about parameters or hypotheses are updated as evidence accumulates You will learn to use Bayes rule to transform prior probabilities into posterior probabilities and be introduced to the underlying theory and perspective of the Bayesian paradigm The course will apply …